Tajikistan is ready to join the customs union. Is it possible for Tajikistan to join the EEU? Tajikistan when customs union
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Tajikistan's accession to the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (CU) is expected to become one of the topics of negotiations during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Dushanbe, scheduled for October 5. Tajikistan has repeatedly declared its interest in the Customs Union, but has not yet taken any real steps.
Prepare your sleigh in summer
On September 21, Kyrgyzstan, neighboring Kyrgyzstan, began preparing documents for joining the Customs Union. By November 15, 2013, Bishkek must present its roadmap for participation in the CU integration association. All this indicates that the common customs space will soon approach the borders of Tajikistan. In such conditions, it is time for Dushanbe to think about its own prospects, experts say.
context
A survey conducted in the summer of 2012 by the international agency Eurasian Monitor showed that 72 percent of Tajiks were in favor of joining the Customs Union. Russian State Duma deputy Vasily Likhachev considers this result a serious argument. “Tajikistan’s decision to join the Customs Union will receive public support in the country,” Likhachev said at a meeting of the forum “The Customs Union and Tajikistan: Prospects for Integration,” held on September 26 in Dushanbe.
According to him, Dushanbe should not wait for Kyrgyzstan to join the Customs Union, but should already work on its customs legislation. “Tajikistan, unlike many other countries, has a pre-launch status, and it is enshrined in the Basic Law of the country. Article 11 states that the country can be a member of regional commonwealths and international organizations. This mitigates the issue of the activities of a supranational structure,” - stated the Russian politician.
For the vehicle - businessmen and migrant workers
Representatives of large and medium-sized businesses in Tajikistan are in favor of integration with post-Soviet states. Dushanbe’s entry into the Customs Union will significantly revive trade with Russia and other members of the Customs Union, noted the commercial director of the Nafisa factory, Abdullo Muhammadiev, who at the same time complained about today’s obstacles to doing business: “We recently sent a batch of socks to one of the Russian regions. The cargo was subjected to re-inspection on the Kazakh-Russian border. We lost 10 days, our partners suffered losses.”
Tajik labor migrants are also in favor of joining the Customs Union. The creation of a common labor market in the Customs Union will allow them to legally work in Russia. This is a weighty argument, considering that about one million Tajik citizens go to Russia every year to work. The amount of their remittances home in 2011 was equivalent to two state budgets of the republic.
Many myths
Experts say that there are many myths surrounding the Customs Union in Tajikistan. One of them is related to the absence of a common border with any of the CU members. This argument is often made by experts in Dushanbe when talking about the existence of barriers, but Russian economist Behrouz Himo considers it unfounded. “Tajikistan will be able to receive goods from Russia and Kazakhstan in the same way, for example, as the Kaliningrad region does,” Himo emphasizes, pointing to the territorial features of this Russian region.
Authorities in Dushanbe have repeatedly expressed concern that entry into the Customs Union will primarily hit small traders who import goods from China and Turkey. Expert of the Economic Council under the President of the Russian Federation Alexander Pavlov believes that there is a way out of this situation, and advises Tajikistan to replace Chinese consumer goods with its own products, becoming a “sewing workshop” of the Customs Union. “Will Tajiks really sew worse than in China? No, they will sew better and of higher quality,” Pavlov is sure.
Advantages of the Customs Union for Tajikistan
The Russians are convincing their partners of the benefits of the Customs Union. “Why don’t they calculate that Tajikistan’s entry into the Customs Union will lower prices for fuel and lubricants in the republic? The gain from this will be from 200 to 350 million dollars. Why doesn’t anyone calculate that the legalization of only one percent of labor migrants who are in Russia will give you and I are 42 billion?" - State Duma deputy Vasily Likhachev asked rhetorically.
Tajikistan, having become a member of the Customs Union, will receive a number of advantages that it will be able to take full advantage of: “First of all, this is energy. It is enough to compare electricity prices here and in Russia. Here they are lower due to the fact that electricity is generated at hydroelectric power stations. In Russia and Kazakhstan, electricity is mainly obtained at thermal stations by burning fuel." The second niche in which Tajikistan can be competitive is the agricultural sector, Pavlov believes. “This makes it possible to export fruits and vegetables to the countries of the Customs Union,” says Pavlov.
Russia needs partners
Moscow's interest in Tajikistan is due to many reasons, Yuri Krupnov, head of the international Development Movement, said in an interview with DW. According to him, in order to compete with global players, Russia needs to expand its economic potential. “China has more than a billion people, North America is approaching a billion. The European Union has half a billion. Against this background, Russia is not in an advantageous position. We don’t even have 200 million. We can’t survive alone without partners,” Krupnov believes.
In his opinion, access to Central Asia will give Russia the opportunity not only to expand its trade space, but also to develop problem regions. Krupnov names Western Siberia as one of them. “Siberia is separated from the western seas by 4,000 kilometers, and the same distance separates it from the Pacific Ocean. In this situation, the region is destined to work with Central Asia,” says Yuri Krupnov.
TASHKENT, November 23 – Sputnik. A round table was held in Dushanbe on the prospects for Tajikistan’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
At the meeting, organized with the participation of the Russian Institute of Eurasian Studies and the Trade Mission of the Russian Federation in Tajikistan, participants discussed the possibility of the country’s interaction with the EAEU and its future prospects for becoming a member of the organization.
Representatives of Kyrgyzstan, a member of the EAEU since August 2015, who were invited to the meeting, shared their opinions on the advantages and disadvantages of joining the union. Sputnik Tajikistan asked Galina Nazarova, one of the organizers of the event and a representative of the Institute of Eurasian Studies in the Republic of Tajikistan, about the need to exchange experience between neighboring states.
“This was our initiative. We really wanted to hear the opinion of Kyrgyzstan, with which we are closest in economic and migration relations. Yes, Tajikistan is on the verge of joining, but for this the country in any case needs some experience of interaction with the structures of the EAEU. In in this case, the experience of its closest neighbors, which Tajikistan could rely on. Kyrgyz colleagues spoke about the specifics of the procedure for joining the Customs Union,” Nazarova said.
One of the main speakers from Kyrgyzstan was Dzhumakadyr Akineev, Advisor to the Minister of Economy of the Kyrgyz Republic, Doctor of Economics. He spoke about what the country received when joining the EAEU. Among the objective advantages were relaxations for labor migrants in Russia and Kazakhstan during registration and registration, free movement of goods within the union, an increase in tourist flow by 28% per year and assistance in rearmament of the army of Kyrgyzstan.
Among the disadvantages is a 5% increase in import duties on the import of goods, which is especially noticeable when trading with China, and a reduction in the number of imported cars from Japan and Europe. Accordingly, Tajikistan may share these same benefits and risks after joining the EAEU.According to Galina Nazarova, one of the results of the round table was the proposal of the delegates of Kyrgyzstan to form an expert group that would provide advisory support to representatives of Tajikistan in joining the EAEU. Today, the EAEU, which has existed for more than two years, is an international market living according to uniform rules, where all member states (regardless of their economic weight and population size) have an equal number of votes. The Union unites 183 million people and ranks first in the world in terms of territory. In addition, by 2019 it is planned to create a single electricity market, and no later than 2025 - single markets for oil, gas and petroleum products. According to the report of Sergei Shukhno, director of the integration department of the Eurasian Economic Commission, the EAEU has taken first place in the world in oil production and the production of potash fertilizers, second place in gas production, third place in iron smelting, wheat and potato cultivation. Tajikistan is currently considering the issue of possible accession to the EAEU and is studying the economic base and legal documents of the Union.
The authorities of Tajikistan have announced their readiness to begin the procedure for the republic’s accession to the Customs Union.
According to media reports, this was announced by the Secretary General of the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) Tair Mansurov following the summit in Moscow.
“The President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon stated that Tajikistan not only wants to join the Customs Union, but is already proposing to put into practice the issues of creating a working group and begin this work,” Mansurov said. The Secretary General positively assessed the prospects for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan joining the Customs Union. He noted that Kyrgyzstan, which is a member of the WTO, will be easier to join the Customs Union, since it was created according to WTO standards.
At the same time, official Dushanbe insists that its interests on labor migration issues be taken into account. According to the press service of the President of Tajikistan, speaking at the summit in Moscow, the head of state drew special attention of the participants to taking into account the interests of the republic in two documents operating within the framework of the Customs Union. We are talking about the legal status of migrant workers and their families, as well as cooperation in combating illegal migration within the framework of this association, CA-News reports.
“These documents must take into account the interests of Tajikistan, which in the future may join this union,” Rahmon said.
Pros and cons of Tajikistan’s upcoming entry into the CU:
A survey conducted in the summer of 2012 by the international agency Eurasian Monitor showed that 72 percent of Tajiks were in favor of joining the Customs Union. Russian State Duma deputy Vasily Likhachev considers this result a serious argument. “Tajikistan’s decision to join the Customs Union will receive public support in the country,” Likhachev said at a meeting of the forum “The Customs Union and Tajikistan: Prospects for Integration,” held on September 26 in Dushanbe.
“Tajikistan, unlike many other countries, has a pre-launch status, and it is enshrined in the Basic Law of the country. Article 11 states that the country can be a member of regional commonwealths and international organizations. This mitigates the issue of the activities of a supranational structure,” - stated the Russian politician.
Behind the vehicle are businessmen and migrant workers:
Representatives of large and medium-sized businesses in Tajikistan are in favor of integration with post-Soviet states. Dushanbe’s entry into the Customs Union will significantly revive trade with Russia and other members of the Customs Union, noted the commercial director of the Nafisa factory, Abdullo Muhammadiev, who at the same time complained about today’s obstacles to doing business: “We recently sent a batch of socks to one of the Russian regions. The cargo was subjected to re-inspection on the Kazakh-Russian border. We lost 10 days, our partners suffered losses.”
Tajik labor migrants are also in favor of joining the Customs Union. The creation of a common labor market in the Customs Union will allow them to legally work in Russia. This is a weighty argument, considering that about one million Tajik citizens go to Russia every year to work. The amount of their remittances home in 2011 was equivalent to two state budgets of the republic.
Many myths:
Experts say that there are many myths surrounding the Customs Union in Tajikistan. One of them is related to the absence of a common border with any of the CU members. This argument is often made by experts in Dushanbe when talking about the existence of barriers, but Russian economist Behrouz Himo considers it unfounded. “Tajikistan will be able to receive goods from Russia and Kazakhstan in the same way, for example, as the Kaliningrad region does,” Himo emphasizes, pointing to the territorial features of this Russian region.
Authorities in Dushanbe have repeatedly expressed concern that entry into the Customs Union will primarily hit small traders who import goods from China and Turkey. Expert of the Economic Council under the President of the Russian Federation Alexander Pavlov believes that there is a way out of this situation, and advises Tajikistan to replace Chinese consumer goods with its own products, becoming a “sewing workshop” of the Customs Union. “Will Tajiks really sew worse than in China? No, they will sew better and of higher quality,” A. Pavlov is sure.
Advantages of the CU for Tajikistan:
The Russians are convincing their partners of the benefits of the Customs Union. “Why don’t they calculate that Tajikistan’s entry into the Customs Union will lower prices for fuel and lubricants in the republic? The gain from this will be from 200 to 350 million dollars. Why doesn’t anyone calculate that the legalization of only one percent of labor migrants who are in Russia will give you and I are 42 billion?" - State Duma deputy Vasily Likhachev asked rhetorically.
Tajikistan, having become a member of the Customs Union, will receive a number of advantages that it will be able to take full advantage of: “First of all, this is energy. It is enough to compare electricity prices here and in Russia. Here they are lower due to the fact that electricity is generated at hydroelectric power stations. In Russia and Kazakhstan, electricity is mainly obtained at thermal stations by burning fuel." The second niche in which Tajikistan can be competitive is the agricultural sector, Pavlov believes. “This makes it possible to export fruits and vegetables to the countries of the Customs Union,” the expert believes.
Russia needs partners:
Moscow's interest in Tajikistan is due to many reasons, Yuri Krupnov, head of the international Development Movement, said in an interview with DW. According to him, in order to compete with global players, Russia needs to expand its economic potential. “China has more than a billion people, North America is approaching a billion. The European Union has half a billion. Against this background, Russia is not in an advantageous position. We don’t even have 200 million. We can’t survive alone without partners,” believes Yu. Krupnov.
In his opinion, access to Central Asia will give Russia the opportunity not only to expand its trade space, but also to develop problem regions. Krupnov names Western Siberia as one of them. “Siberia is separated from the western seas by 4,000 kilometers, and the same distance separates it from the Pacific Ocean. In this situation, the region is destined to work with Central Asia,” he believes
While Russia continues to reiterate its interest in Tajikistan joining the Eurasian Economic Union, unresolved problems are accumulating within the association.
On November 20, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, during a meeting at the Azerbaijani Diplomatic Academy in Baku, answering a question about the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), said that the issue of Tajikistan’s membership in the EAEU is being considered. “We will welcome new members. Tajikistan and a number of other interested countries, including not necessarily those from the CIS countries, are looking at the work of the EAEU. We will be glad and ready to welcome Azerbaijan into these ranks. Now the possibility of establishing an observer institute under the Eurasian Economic Commission is being explored,” said the Russian Foreign Minister.
RUSSIA’S “INTEREST,” PRESENTED AS AN “EVENT”
This is not the first statement by the Russian Foreign Minister regarding Tajikistan’s possible membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. During a visit to Dushanbe in 2014 (the year the agreement on the EAEU was signed), Sergei Lavrov said that Russia is open to such “close neighbors” as Tajikistan. Dushanbe, in turn, continues to give evasive answers, citing that the issue requires study and that Tajikistan should consider the pros and cons of likely joining the union.
To a question from the Tajik edition of RFE/RL in connection with Lavrov’s recent statement, the Ministry of Economy and Trade of Tajikistan responded on November 22, saying that it was studying the experience of Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, which were the last to join the EAEU.
Tajik expert Zafar Abdullayev notes that Russia wants to present “its interest” as an event. In an interview with the Tajik edition of RFE/RL, the expert says that Moscow, through Lavrov, is giving a signal to Tajikistan to speed up the process of joining the union.
— Moscow wants to control such weak economies as Tajikistan. Because Russia does not like that China and other competitors are investing in the economy of Tajikistan. By attracting into this union, she wants to get rid of investments from competitors. Moscow is applying all types of pressure, political and soft power,” he says.
According to Zafar Abdullayev, Russia, through funding research institutions, created the Central Asian Expert Club “Eurasian Development”, which united a group of Tajik experts. With the support of the Russian Embassy in Tajikistan, this club often holds its meetings. They mostly talk about how Tajikistan will benefit from joining the EAEU. This club was opened in 2014, the year the agreement on the EAEU was signed.
Recently, China and Saudi Arabia have begun to pour funds into the economy of Tajikistan. Over the past month, delegations from Tehran visited Dushanbe, and steps were taken to restore cooled Tajik-Iranian relations. However, Russia considers itself a leading investor in the Tajik economy.
A LAMPING ORGANIZATION AND A WEAK ECONOMY
Expert Zafar Abdullayev, hinting at recent events on the Kazakh-Kyrgyz border, says that the EAEU is unable to resolve political disputes between members of the union.
“This union has become the same “dead” organization as the CIS,” he says.
Some experts believe that if Tajikistan becomes a member of the EAEU, the labor rights of about a million Tajik migrants in Russia will be equal to the rights of Russian citizens. Therefore, Tajik migrants are interested in their country’s membership in this organization. However, according to some estimates, Tajikistan’s budget in this case could lose 30 percent of its revenue.
Kazakh political scientist Azimbay Gali says that unemployment in Tajikistan is pushing citizens of this country to look for work in Russia.
— Regardless of whether Tajikistan and Russia are allies or not, it is obvious that the flow of migrants will not dry up. In many cases, migrants travel to Russia illegally and face various problems. If Tajikistan joins the EAEU, it will certainly become easier to travel to Russia, the expert tells RFE/RL.
Following Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Dushanbe, Tajik migrants in Russia were allowed to register in Russia for a month.
In response to a question about what periodic statements by Russian officials about Tajikistan’s imminent entry into the union could mean, Azimbai Gali says that Moscow is interested in increasing the number of allies
— In reality, Moscow would like to have more countries that would depend on it. In this regard, Tajikistan, with a weak economy, has no other choice but to join the union. I assume that in the current situation, Tajikistan’s entry into the EAEU will not drag on for long,” the political scientist believes.
Another Kazakh political scientist Tolganai Umbetalieva is skeptical about Tajikistan’s accession to the EAEU.
“Tajikistan does not show serious interest in this Union and I don’t think that interest will awaken soon,” the expert believes.
Umbetalieva believes that Uzbekistan's call for integration in Central Asia is causing concern in Russia.
“The impulses that came from Uzbekistan may have somewhat alarmed Russia, which views these changes as contrary to its interests both in the post-Soviet space as a whole and in the Central Asian region,” the expert notes.
Tolganay Umbetalieva draws attention to the fact that former USSR countries are being attracted to the EAEU.
— In reality, the economic benefits from and for new participants are not visible. In addition, there are already a lot of problems within the EAEU that have not been resolved,” Tolganay Umbetalieva tells RFE/RL.
According to her, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan have not yet been fully integrated into the union, not to mention the problems that exist between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Such problems will accumulate if they are not solved, but if new economically weak states are attracted to the union.
The agreement on the creation of the EAEU by the heads of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus was signed in 2014. The union began its work in 2015. Later, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan joined the union. However, there are disagreements between the members of the union - Minsk and Moscow, Astana and Bishkek. Russia is under Western sanctions after annexing Crimea and supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Kuanyshbek Kari, Kazakh service of Radio Liberty
"Copyright (C) 2010 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with permission from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty"
DUSHANBE, April 30 - Sputnik. The new Customs Code of the EAEU countries is planned to come into force on January 1, 2018, the press service of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) reported.
“The EEC Council decided to synchronize the procedures for ratifying the Customs Code of the Eurasian Economic Union. This will allow it to enter into force on January 1, 2018,” the message says, RIA Novosti reports.
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is an international integration economic association created on the basis of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space and has been operating since January 1, 2015. Currently, members of the EAEU are Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
The EAEU Customs Code is one of the main documents of the legal framework of the union.
Belarus did not attend the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council at the level of heads of state of the EAEU in St. Petersburg, where the EAEU Customs Code was signed in December.
Earlier, Foreign Minister of Belarus Vladimir Makei said that the main goals of creating the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) have not yet been achieved.
The Foreign Minister emphasized that “a mechanism for the functioning of the EAEU in the context of the application by one of the member states of the union of unilateral market protection measures in relation to third states has not been developed, and the fundamental issue of ensuring freedom of transit transportation of goods from third countries through the EAEU member states has not been resolved. ".
EEC Minister for Trade Veronika Nikishina noted that in 2016, the EEC Board assessed the benefits and risks of trade with countries outside the EAEU.
Having assessed the benefits and risks for our five countries, we realized that the benefits far outweigh the risks. We are ready for this," she said. The minister emphasized that the benefit will be that the EEC will reduce competition in the domestic market by creating preferential regimes for the release of export products to the markets of third countries.